Is it time for a reckoning in stocks?

Is it time for stocks to sell off? In light of the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers last month, we should remember that it’s a mistake to be complacent about what could happen in markets. Extreme economic and financial events are far more likely to occur than we like to believe. But the real lesson of Lehman is not so much that very bad things can occur — it’s that anything might. Investors should be mindful of the risk of further crises, but they should also keep in mind the possibility that things might turn out just fine. This is hard to do. It’s far easier to think of ways that things might soon go wrong. The U.S. stock market is the most expensive stock market in the world currently, according to renowned Yale economist Robert Schiller. The economy has enjoyed a long expansion — maybe too long. The S&P 500 hit its market bottom in March 2009, and since those lows, it has rallied 334 percent in the longest stretch on record since World War II without dipping into a bear market. Perhaps the Federal Reserve will tip it into recession. The trouble in emerging markets