The Markets (as of market close October 6, 2023)

The market ended last week with mixed results. The tech-heavy Nasdaq made it two straight weeks of gains, while the S&P 500 also ended the week in the black. The remaining benchmark indexes listed here ended last week lower despite a late-week rally. Wall Street tried to predict what the Federal Reserve would do after the latest jobs report showed employment accelerated by a whopping 336,000 in September. Strength in the labor sector, coupled with other favorable economic data, certainly supports the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy, which traders fear could lead to another interest-rate hike when the Fed meets again in November. In addition, the robust September hiring data may push long-term bond yields higher with bond prices sagging. Earlier in the week, 10-year Treasury yields touched highs not seen since 2007. Crude oil prices had their biggest weekly decline since March, falling to just under $83.00 per barrel after hitting $94.00 per barrel at the end of September. Crude oil prices have fluctuated despite foreign production cuts, largely because the U.S. and other non-OPEC+ countries increased production, which happened to coincide with a lag in demand.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Inflation data for September is out this week with the releases of the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. The CPI rose 0.6% in August and 3.7% for the year. Producer prices increased 0.7% in August and 1.6% for the last 12 months.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e., wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Forecasts are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities and other bonds fluctuates with market conditions. Bonds are subject to inflation, interest-rate, and credit risks. As interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall. A bond sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 largest, publicly traded companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to six foreign currencies. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.