The Markets (as of market close October 13, 2023)

Wall Street closed last week with mixed results. The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 closed lower, while the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Global Dow edged higher. Several big banks kicked off third-quarter earnings season with upbeat returns, which helped quell concerns over the developments in the Middle East. Inflation continued to prove stubborn, with data from September showing prices rose more than expected. Ten-year Treasury yields declined, while crude oil prices jumped over concerns about the potential impact of the Middle East conflict and tightened sanctions by the United States on sales of crude to Russia. Some analysts fear that the escalating struggle between Israel and Hamas might lead to soaring crude oil prices topping $150 per barrel to the detriment of global economic growth — not a good environment for stocks.

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week includes the release of data on retail sales for September. Consumer spending at the retail level has been steady so far this year, with sales increasing 0.6% in August. The Federal Reserve’s report on industrial production for September is available this week. August saw industrial production increase 0.4%, although manufacturing output only ticked up 0.1%. Housing data is out this week with the release of the report on housing starts and building permits. Building permits increased 6.9% in August, while housing starts dipped 11.3%. September data on existing home sales is released at the end of this week. Rising interest rates and a dearth of inventory have caused sales of existing homes to fall 15.3% from a year earlier.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e., wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Forecasts are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities and other bonds fluctuates with market conditions. Bonds are subject to inflation, interest-rate, and credit risks. As interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall. A bond sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 largest, publicly traded companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to six foreign currencies. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.