The Markets (as of market close July 8, 2022)

Last Friday’s strong jobs report may have alleviated fears of a recession for the time being, but it also likely supported a more aggressive response from the Federal Reserve as it tries to dampen rising inflation. Stocks started July on a strong note, with each of the major benchmark indexes posting solid gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has been hit hard during the first half of the year, gained over 4.5%, although it remains more than 25.0% below its 2021 year-end value. The small caps of the Russell 2000, down more than 21.0% from the beginning of the year, jumped nearly 2.5% higher last week. Wall Street is likely to see volatility continue until investors see signs that the Fed is backing off its current path of rate increases. With corporate earnings season right around the corner, traders will focus on company forecasts as well as inflation data to assess the health of the economy.

Eye on the Week Ahead

This is a busy week for the release of important economic data. Most of the attention, however, will focus on the Consumer Price Index for June. May saw consumer prices jump unexpectedly higher at 1.0%. Consumer prices have risen 8.6% since June 2021. Several analysts suggest that the June CPI will come in lower than the May figure.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e., wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Forecasts are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities and other bonds fluctuates with market conditions. Bonds are subject to inflation, interest-rate, and credit risks. As interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall. A bond sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 largest, publicly traded companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to six foreign currencies. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.